Mr. Kovacs currently serves as Vice President – Business Consulting for mba. In this role he manages the Business Consulting unit while supervising consulting assignment teams. He oversees project product quality, delivery, and client relationship management. His organizational responsibilities include staff development, training and team building.

Mr. Kovacs is an accomplished aviation management consultant with 20 years of wide-ranging experience in airline operational, financial and strategic performance assessment; aviation market trends analysis and projection; and development of effective business plans and strategic alternatives. He is experienced in organizing, leading and managing complex projects and is a proven originator of innovative solutions. He has strong skill sets in due diligence research, business analysis and business modeling particularly in transforming concepts into analysis and decision documents. Mr. Kovacs has significant international project experience and has worked extensively with the financial community in identifying, validating and developing aviation market opportunities.

Mr. Kovacs joined mba from the Federal Aviation Administration, where he was a senior level aviation industry economist responsible for generating the agency’s annual U.S. Aerospace Industry Forecasts; as well as supporting other industry-focused forecasting requirements. Mr. Kovacs served as an FAA senior airline industry subject matter expert. He tracked, analyzed and reported on market forces shaping the evolution of the global airline industry.

Prior to his work with the FAA, Mr. Kovacs gained two-decades of diversified aviation consulting experience with major industry consulting firms PA Consulting Group, Inc. and Simat, Helliesen & Eichner (SH&E). At PA Consulting, Mr. Kovacs was a Principal Consultant in the firm’s Transportation Practice responsible for structuring project analytical tasks, on-site project team management, and project related client interaction. He designed and developed PA’s Airline Network Profitability Model and directed programmers in its construction, testing, de-bugging and implementation. He also designed, developed and implemented a comprehensive analytical staff training program.

At SH&E, Mr. Kovacs achieved the rank of Director, advancing from an entry-level Analyst with progressively increasing responsibilities. As a Director he was responsible for project and client relationship management, as well as being in charge of new analyst hiring and training of analytical staff.

Mr. Kovacs holds a Masters Degree in Business Administration, a Masters Degree in Public Policy and a Bachelor of Arts Degree with a double major in political science and economics, all from the University of Maryland.

Airline Market Positioning and Competitive Analysis Expertise:

• Market segmentation and product positioning analysis
• Pricing strategy and pricing structure evaluation
• Traffic flow analysis and modeling
• Benchmarking to competitors, and determination of company relative competitive position
• Market demand and traffic forecasting and econometric modeling
• Market share projections and design and application of QSI methodologies
• Airline market strategy development, evaluation and risk assessment
• Industry studies, market review, and analysis of competitive trends

Airline Network Strategy Development and Fleet Planning Expertise:

• Network planning, route structure evaluation, schedule and hub connectivity analysis
• Fleet requirements determination and fleet plan development
• Competing aircraft comparative life cycle cost-benefit analysis
• Strategic alliances and partnerships assessment
• Critical market success factors determination

Airline Financial Analysis and Planning Expertise:

• Due diligence review, financial performance analysis and financial statements modeling
• Financial and operating plan development, modeling, analysis and DCF projections
• Airline cost structure analysis and cost-drivers modeling
• Aircraft life cycle cost analysis and evaluation of relative economic performance
• Route/Network/System revenue, cost and profitability determination
• NPV discounted cash flow analysis and modeling
• Capital investment requirements assessment and financial plan development
• Firm valuation, risk factors modeling, investment appraisal and IRR assessment
• Business plan design and evaluation

Work Highlights:

• Airline Re-Fleeting Plan Development: Developed a 10-year fleet replacement model for a regional Argentine carrier. Model evaluated NPV financial returns of alternative fleet decisions, incorporating traffic, capacity, market share and competitive impacts of alternative aircraft types and potential replacement schedule. Analysis evaluated carrier traffic, revenues, aircraft operating and ownership costs, and impact on carrier profitability and cash flows.
• Analysis of Competing Aircraft Economics: Performed in-depth analysis of competing regional jet and turboprop aircraft operating economics and ownership costs in support of an aircraft manufacturer's marketing campaign to introduce the EMB-135 regional jet aircraft into the North American market. Created complex operating and ownership cost model to determine NPV costs and benefits of alternative fleet scenarios. Model identified competing aircraft characteristics and mission profiles, analyzed revenue generating capabilities and direct operating costs, evaluated lease vs. purchase ownership scenarios, and calculated NPV profit under various operating and financial assumptions.
• Aircraft Life Cycle Cost Analysis: Aircraft life cycle cost expert for Raytheon in the U.S. Department of Defense Joint Military Cargo Aircraft (JCA) acquisition process (C-29 vs. C-27J). Served as lead economic expert on aircraft operating costs. Reviewed, analyzed, and commented on competing military cargo aircraft projected life cycle operating costs over 30-year deployment horizon; including maintenance costs, cockpit and cargo handlers training requirements, fuel consumption, base operations and other operations support costs.
• FAA Annual U.S. Aerospace Industry Forecast: Lead analyst and airline industry subject matter expert on team generating annual FAA U.S. Aerospace Industry Forecast. Responsible for econometric forecast model development, application of forecast model structure and interpretation of results. Model includes U.S. industry traffic demand forecast, airline capacity supply estimate, and market clearing price point projections for 12-year time horizon. Forecast results also include airline activity and fleet requirement projections. Model results serve as critical component of FAA future air traffic control activity projections and resource requirement assessment. Forecast is presented to wide-ranging industry audience at high-visibility Annual FAA U.S. Aerospace Industry Forecast Conference in Washington, D.C.
• FAA U.S. Airline Industry Trend Tracking Project: Created, and managed FAA-internal U.S. Airline Industry Tracking Project. Purpose of project is to provide quarterly assessment to senior FAA management of industry trends, and provide on-going evaluation of accuracy of annual FAA airline industry forecast. Quarterly report summarizes industry developments, assessment of year-to-date industry performance relative to annual forecast projections, and sounds early warning alarm of industry forces with potential to significantly impact industry performance with implications for FAA operations.
• Air Service Development Projects: Performed passenger traffic analyses and forecasts for various U.S. airport clients in support of their efforts to attract new or additional air service carriers and/or increased service levels. Applied a route profitability analysis and projection model to demonstrate profit potential of specific carrier services on selected routes. Projections included local and connecting traffic; passenger fares and yields; and operating costs and profit based on selected aircraft types. Performed various scenario simulations.
• Airline Network Profitability Simulation Software: Designed and developed an Airline Network Profitability Model, including hands-on model component development, and identification and definition of relationships between airline profit variables. Directed programmers in building, testing, debugging, and improving model design and performance. Model analyzes global airline schedules on route specific level; simulates traffic-flow patterns, volumes, and traffic shares via a QSI module; and then estimates carrier specific passenger traffic revenues. By applying aircraft and carrier specific operating costs, the model calculates carrier route profitability on five levels of aggregation from cash contribution to fully allocated profit. Individual route results can be summarized into operating divisions, a system network, or aircraft categories. Model’s flexibility in tailoring input variables to specific carrier circumstances greatly enhances airline profit performance analysis and simulation under desired scenario assumptions.
• Global Traffic Flow Analysis of Major Southeast Asia Hub Airport: Developed extensive international passenger traffic flow model between Southeast Asia and major global markets. Analyzed relative competitive positions and hubbing alternatives, and evaluated the role of international airline alliances in funneling global passenger flows through competing connecting airports in Southeast Asia. Performed 10-year passenger traffic forecast of passenger volumes and flow patterns under alternative global alliance scenarios. Analysis supported go/no-go investment decision by Southeast Asian airport.

International Flag Carrier Financial Re-Structuring: Lead industry analyst and subject matter expert of an international flag carrier's financial turn-around and re-capitalization advisory team. Conducted thorough 360-degree due diligence review and analysis of the carrier's route network, fleet composition, competitive market position, strategic and financial performance, and business plan. Developed financial and operating model in support of company valuation and successful re-capitalization, and was key advisor to decision-makers in formulating and designing alternative strategies to ensure for the flag carrier's survival.

 

e-mail: gkovacs@mba.aero